Rumours are circulating that we are weeks away from going into a second wave of Coronavirus and another lockdown. This would suggest that easing of regulations on social activities aren’t really working. It appears with 95% of the population still uninfected, the writing is on the wall.

That is crap news for people who rely on social interaction and any chance of the economy recovering. The hymn ‘In the Bleak Mid-Winter’, will be number one for Christmas and Jeff Bezoz will be one of the few people on the planet with a smile on his face.

Herd Immunity Merchants

Herd immunity merchants will be saying that we should have ‘taken it on the chin’ early on and we would be coming out of it by now if we had. However, there seems to be a huge spectrum of opinion with the number of fatalities we would have been dealing with.

As a self-confessed amateur epidemiologist, I would like to confirm I have not got much idea, but I am assuming a lockdown had to be done. The logical reason being that public health experts didn’t know enough about the disease, so rescuing an unprepared and underfunded health service from being overwhelmed, was paramount.

Again, I am guessing, but by delaying the spread of the disease, it would be hoped that better treatment might be available, and we would be nearer a vaccine. Whilst this may be the case, the bad news is that post illness immunity doesn’t seem to last long (it was hoped, like SARS, it would be 2 years). It also appears that grandiose statements about vaccines being available by September seemed to come from companies who had been given a lot of public money.

Positives and Negatives

However, there does seem to be some positive news. Apart from anomalies, young and healthy people are not likely to die or even know they have had Coronavirus. Also, the death figures have undoubtedly shown an exaggerated excess due to the omnishambles within the care home industry. The transfer of untested patients from hospital into homes was an absolute disaster; they might as well have set them alight. Surely that error won’t happen again in a second wave.

A controversial solution to a second wave would be to ring fence vulnerable people and places such as care homes. Then we could allow the disease to filter through the younger and healthier population. However, where do you draw the line on who is vulnerable and if immunity is only going to last a couple of months, what is the point?

A second lockdown as scientists battle for cures and vaccines may be the only option available. However, this would have to be counter balanced with the effect it has on society. Can Britain cope with the economic and psychological effects of a winter in isolation followed by the impending fiscal disaster that is Brexit?

I have my doubts.